CELTIC: Opportunity Knocks
The return of Lazio to Celtic Park provides the sort of opportunity Celtic need to take to register points in the group for a hope of achieving Brendan Rodgers stated aim of European football after the New Year.
16th placed opponents might just be what Celtic need to register their first Champions League group stage win since defeating Anderlecht 3-0 away in the 2017-18 campaign. It will be the first home win since defeating Ajax Amsterdam 2-1 in 2013-14 – 10 years ago!
The footballing world continues to reward the haves over the have nots of course, and Celtic, coming from an impoverished league, have suffered in that regard alongside many others.
But still, given consistent domestic hegemony over the period in question, that is a poor record.
What to make of the opponents?
Season Summary
The Romans are seven games into the Serie A season and sit 16th with seven points from two wins and a draw.
Outside of that, their only other competitive match was the 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on match day one. Ivan Provedel the goalkeeper grabbing the equalising goal in the 95th minute.
Indeed, it seems the tougher the nut the harder they crack.
That Champions League draw allied to a 2-1 win over Napoli in Naples indicates that when the opposition is tough, they find a bit extra. To balance they’ve lost easily at AC Milan and Juventus.
This must be set aside defeats to Lecce and Genoa and a draw with Monza.
Given Celtic are more the standard of the latter than the former opponents, maybe this bodes well!
Stat Snap
Is their league position deserved?
They rank 13th for xG for (6.7); 11th for goals conceded (1.4); 15th for shots on target per game (3); 14th for big chances created (8); 7th for xG conceded (9.5) and 13th for possessions won in final third (3.4).
So, in a word – Yes
They do rank second for most accurate passes (464) per match yet only 8th for average possession (53%).
Manager Maurizio Sarri is renowned for possession-based football, a highly vertical and attractive style allied to high pressing, but the stats don’t bear that out this season at least.
By the way this is Sarri’s 19th managerial gig and success came relatively late with a Europa League triumph with Chelsea and a Serie A title with Juventus a reward for sustained journeyman jobbing. Perhaps Neil Warnock will be a success at Ibrox after all!
Despite spending 36m Euros on new strikers in the last window goals have been a problem. Immobile (now 33) has two as does Spanish captain Luis Alberto but that’s it for those with more than one goal.
The captain has been the most influential according to FotMob with an average 7.54 rating. He also has the most xA with 1.2. Right back Manuel Lazzari and young left winger Mattia Zaccagni are the only others with an average over 7.
Immobile leads with 2.1 xG with one other player at 1 or over.
What to Expect?
In every game this season they have lined up in a 4-3-3 that mirrors Celtic’s normal shape.
Here is the line up from the last match versus Milan (from FotMob):
Expect Ciro Immobile to replace Valentin Castellanos as the focal striker and David Cataldi instead of Matteo Guendouzi in midfield.
If we look at their average positions from the recent 2-0 home win over Torino (from Sofascore):
They play a compact midfield and try and push the full backs on to provide the width. Immobile is very much the attacking point man.
One player tends to drop deeper at the back as a sweeper if we study more of their matches which is something to try and get Daizen Maeda or Kyogo Furuhashi to exploit.
Direct diagonals or early balls to the flanks may be beneficial as Sarri likes a high line.
Alistair Johnston and Greg Taylor will need to be aware of the wide forwards tendency to come inside and create central overloads whilst keeping in touch with Immobile.
Typical of Sarri, whilst Lazio will make a lot of passes and keep possession, they do try and get forward with high verticality. Indeed, they are arguably the side with the best balance of possession and direct forward speed in the league despite their results (or maybe just behind Atalanta).
In terms of zones of control as calculated by Opta:
They will seek to dominate the middle of the park, which is why I think a 4-4-2 diamond might work for Celtic. Their right flank is more productive than their left which does not play to Celtic’s defensive strengths! The Brazilian Felipe Anderson is highly creative and leads the team with 0.22 xA per 90m.
There is clearly scope for Reo Hatate and Callum McGregor to dominate the left-hand side of midfield and as noted with their average positions, Lazio seem to allow the opposition to contest the wide areas even in their defensive third.
Summary
On the face of it Lazio are having the season they deserve and Celtic, if they are to be competitive in Europe, must seek to take advantage of a side 16th in their league.
Lazio are struggling for goals and not exhibiting the level of control normally associated with a Sarri side.
However, the pace on the break and fast vertical balls into the channels between the defenders are a weakness for Celtic. Another new central pairing will be stretched. Immobile is a master of movement and Celtic will have two relatively ponderous back players in Nathan Phillips and Liam Scales.
All that being said, this may be Celtic’s best chance of three points.
Let’s turn their world upside down!
