The Browns must perform one last-minute deal before the 2023 NFL deadline.
This season, the Cleveland Browns have been one of the great stories in the NFL. They have one of the finest defenses in the NFL, if not the best. According to rbsdm.com, they have the highest EPA per play allowed in the NFL. They allow 243 yards per game, while the Baltimore Ravens allow 271.7 yards per game. In four of their six games this season, their defense has allowed fewer than 20 points.
They’re currently tied with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in the loss column atop the AFC North division. They’re in great shape. That is, aside from the quarterback position.
Things have gotten weird with Deshaun Watson. The Browns cleared him to play before their Week 4 loss to the Ravens, but Watson sat out that game. He also missed Cleveland’s next game after their Week 5 bye week.
He returned to action in Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts, but he left that game early and didn’t return. Now, Watson has already been ruled out for Cleveland’s Week 8 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks and could be out even longer than that.
PJ Walker has held down the fort for the Browns over the previous two weeks and done an admirable job. Walker has played in both games for the Browns, but he has only completed 50% of his passes and is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.
Deshaun Watson wasn’t playing well prior to the injury and hasn’t looked like the Texans version of himself since. The Browns should make an attempt to trade for a quarterback; their defense requires it. It couldn’t hurt to bring back a familiar face.
Why the Browns do it
Jacoby Brissett was impressive for the Browns last season. Brissett posted an EPA plus completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) composite score of 0.105 last season. That was basically tied with Trevor Lawrence for 13th among quarterbacks.
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He didn’t do that on an insignificant sample size either. Brissett posted that score on 464 plays last season. For comparison’s sake, Dak Prescott posted a score of 0.113 on 472 plays. Lamar Jackson’s score was 0.084 on 475 plays.
The Browns got a lot out of Jacoby Brissett with the same offensive system in tow. Granted, Brissett also had Nick Chubb behind him last season and he wouldn’t be there now if the Browns were to acquire Brissett again and neither is right tackle Jack Conklin, but roughly the same personnel is there as is the same offensive system.
Brissett knows the offense and knows how to operate within it efficiently. He’d be great insurance if Watson’s shoulder continues to compromise his play and availability. Heck, forget insurance. Brissett was straight-up *better* than Watson last season.
The Browns owe Deshaun Watson an exorbitant amount of money, money they can’t get out of. Watson also has the higher ceiling between him and Brissett. But at the moment, Brissett’s baseline performance level is better than Watson’s, and if the Browns defense continues to keep up this level of play, that’s all they really need.
If Watson continues to struggle or Cleveland is forced into playing PJ Walker, they won’t be able to reach the heights this defense is presenting them. They might be able to get there with Jacoby Brissett.
Why the Commanders do it
The Commanders do this trade because he isn’t playing. They’re all in on finding out if Sam Howell is their guy. Head coach Ron Rivera recently stated that he is “committed” to Howell (via Nicki Jhabvala of The Washington Post) starting the rest of the season as he and the organization should be.
The Commanders don’t have the look of a contender. They rank 22nd in the NFL in offensive EPA per play and 26th in defensive EPA per play allowed. While they do have three wins on the season, they’re 27th in the NFL in point differential through Week 7. That doesn’t seem anything like a contender.
If this level of performance continues, the Commanders might have the first pick in the draft. That means they could be in position to select a franchise quarterback in the draft. However, Howell could be that person. They’ll only find out if they keep playing him.
If Brissett is only a backup for them, trading him would not significantly affect their plans. The additional draft picks would be more beneficial to the Commanders than having Brissett sit out.
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