Pierce Johnson’s return marks the start of the Braves’ bullpen construction for 2024.
The Braves announced Wednesday that reliever Pierce Johnson has signed a two-year contract with a club option for 2026, in the style of Alex Anthopoulos. Johnson will receive $7 million guaranteed in 2024 and 2025, as well as a $7 million club option with a $250,000 buyout in 2026. Johnson is guaranteed a total of $14.25 million throughout the length of the contract.
Despite the fact that Johnson was slated to become a free agency this offseason, the deal is officially classified as an extension rather than a free agent signing. However, free agency does not legally begin until 5 days after the World Series, which is still roughly 2 weeks away, making the Braves’ ability to make this trade even more astounding. Johnson could have negotiated a contract with all 30 teams once free agency began, ensuring he received the highest contract available to him. The fact that he gave up that opportunity and signed now demonstrates how much he enjoyed his time in Atlanta and how eager he was to return.
The Braves motivation for this deal isn’t hard to understand. After coming over from Colorado mid-season, Johnson immediately established himself as one of the better relievers out of Atlanta’s bullpen. In total, Johnson made 24 appearances with the Braves and posted a 0.76 ERA and a 2.83 FIP in those games. He struck out 12.17 per nine innings with the Braves while only walking 1.14 per nine, and alll of that along with a 56% ground-ball rate made him one of the best relievers in baseball in the second half of 2023. And $7M per year for that type of reliever, along with a relatively short contract, is plenty of value from the team side to make this an easy decision for the front office. I’m more surprise Johnson said yes to this than I am the Braves, given how close he was to the open market.
It’s also no wonder the Braves wanted to get something done as soon as possible. They have a lot to do this winter, with the bullpen especially. Kris broke down the entire 40-man situation on the site earlier this week, and as you can see from it, there’s currently quite of bit of uncertainty in the relief core. Technically as we sit here today, Raisel Iglesias and Tyler Matzek were the only two relievers with a guaranteed contract going into 2024, at least before the Johnson signing. And Matzek is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Coming into the winter, Johnson, Joe Jimenez and Jesse Chavez were all set to become free agents, Kirby Yates and Colin McHugh both have team options that are far from locks, Brad Hand has a mutual option that certainly will be declined, and AJ Minter, Nick Anderson, Michael Tonkin, and Ben Heller are all arbitration eligible. Combine that with injury uncertainty to Dylan Lee and his shoulder, you can see there’s plenty of work to be done this off-season.
Minter is lock to at least have his contract tendered, if not more than that in the shape of an extension, but either way he’ll be back next year. My guess is Nick Anderson gets tendered a contract as well after a strong debut season with Atlanta. Add in Iglesias and now Johnson, that at least gives you a solid 4 guys to build off of the rest of the winter.
I imagine the Braves will be aggressive in trying to get Jimenez under a similar contract they just gave to Johnson. But like Johnson, Jimenez is coming off a strong season himself, posting a 3.04 ERA and a 3.59 FIP over 56 innings pitched in his one season with the Braves. The advantage Jimenez has over Johnson is next year will be his age 29 season, versus the age 33 season Johnson will be playing at. Other team will be more likely to give Jimenez a longer deal and therefore make it harder for the Braves to re-sign him. Still, my guess is they’ll make at run at him at least until they get priced out.
With Yates and McHugh, my guess is both guys get their option decline and both enter the free agent market, though Yates’ case is more interesting than McHugh’s case. Yates’ option for 2024 is for $5.75M with a $1.25M buyout so you could make the argument that’s worth picking up, since you’re only saving $4.5M in declining it. What can you realistically expect to get on the open market that’s better than Yates for $4.5M? Yates doesn’t kill you as a relatively low leverage option and the price point is hard to beat. Still, Yates was maddeningly inconsistent last year, especially with his command, and it wouldn‘t shock me to see them move on entirely.
If the Braves need to enter the free agency bullpen market, there are a number of intriguing names to consider. Josh Hader, Reynaldo Lopez, Jordan Hicks, Keynan Middleton, and David Robertson are all available, and the list will grow even longer when club and player options are selected across the league. Signing free agency relievers is one of the riskier moves a front office can make since they represent the most variable unit in baseball. However, a strong bullpen is critical in today’s game, especially as we approach October, so the risk is warranted.
With so many prospective partnerships, the list of trade names is significantly longer and nearly difficult to compile. Nobody saw the Braves trading for Joe Jimenez or signing Nick Anderson last offseason, and both ended up playing big roles at points. Similar surprising names, I’m sure, will be pursued this offseason as the Braves look to fill out the rest of their bullpen. And there are still people like Tonkin and Heller who can be signed to contracts and kept around for depth, which is always in short supply.
Bullpen construction is an art form that has become an annual exercise in today’s game, with clubs often turning over the majority of their pen year after year. The Braves have been no exception, and this offseason will be no exception as they strive to rebuild a World Series-caliber relief core. Johnson’s re-signing was a good first step. There will be additional steps.
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