Insider: Raiders set to sign ‘‘Quality Starter’’ at QB in 2024

Increasingly, it looks like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have little choice but to keep quarterback Baker Mayfield when he becomes a free agent this offseason. Mayfield has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league, and the Buccaneers have surged with four straight wins to bring them to the brink of the NFL playoffs. But over the course of the season, a case could sure be made that Mayfield would have been a very good fit for the Las Vegas Raiders.

When he was a free agent last winter, of course, Josh McDaniels and the Raiders were laser-focused on adding Jimmy Garoppolo, and did not give much of a hearing to the notion of signing Mayfield, who had led a memorable 98-yard game-winning drive to beat the Raiders in Week 14.

Tampa Bay might very well pony up for Mayfield. But if they move on from him–and the Bucs have an overwhelming list of free agents to deal with–there will be suitors aplenty. And NBC Sports’ Mike Florio sees the Raiders, potentially, among them.

“So where will he be next year? Again, he has said he wants to stay in Tampa Bay,” Florio wrote. “Other teams looking for a starter could disrupt that, whether it’s the Patriots or the Steelers (if they decide Kenny Pickett isn’t the answer) or the Raiders or the Broncos (if they move on from Russell Wilson) or the Vikings (if Kirk Cousins leaves) or the Seahawks (if they choose to move on from Geno Smith).”

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Baker Mayfield Has Shown He Is a ‘Quality Starter’

As Florio mentions, the Raiders should not feel too badly about missing out on Baker Mayfield. Everyone else did, too. The Saints were rumored to be the likeliest landing spot for Mayfield, but they instead forked out $60 million for ex-Raiders quarterback David Carr. The Falcons, too, could have had Mayfield, who wound up going to the Buccaneers on a $4.0 million contract. (He will earn at least $1 million in incentives, too.)

Now, Mayfield could very well be the one to knock the Saints and Falcons out of the playoffs should the Buccaneers close the deal and win the NFC South.

“Along the way, Mayfield has re-established himself as a quality starter who is a great leader and, quite possibly, a division champion,” Florio wrote. “He’s still only 28. He could still end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the league. This year, he is. Especially since he’s done something plenty of starters haven’t. He has started every single game, through late December.”

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Raiders Would Be an Ideal Fit

Spotrac has Mayfield projected to earn a contract in the range of $17 million per year for two years. Pro Football Focus, in its free-agent projections for 2024, has Mayfield earning $15 million per year for two years, for $30 million total. Both of those projections feel light, given that, as Florio mentions, the franchise tag on quarterbacks would be $35 million per year.

If the projections are accurate, though, wouldn’t Mayfield make a lot of sense for the Raiders? This is an offense that has weapons but just needs a reliable veteran to utilize them. He has 26 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions, with a 1.6% interception rate, the lowest of his career.

He is also shown the kind of fiery leadership that would work well with this Raiders bunch, especially if Antonio Pierce remains the head coach. Mayfield has drawn repeated praise from players and coaches in Tampa for his leadership abilities, as he has helped drag a team that lost six out of seven games to the brink of the postseason.

And the Raiders can afford it. According to Over the Cap, the Raiders are 10th in projected cap space next winter, with $40.7 million.

Maybe the Raiders opt to keep going with Aidan O’Connell, maybe they draft a quarterback, or maybe they make a trade. But they could do a lot worse than bringing in Baker Mayfield to a group that seems to suit him perfectly.