Insider: “Bold trade move” emerges for the Vikings and you’re probably not going to like it

But we’re going to talk about it anyway

Outside of the “will they or won’t they” discussion surrounding quarterback Kirk Cousins, the biggest topic of discussion of the offseason for the Minnesota Vikings is the contract status of wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is entering the fifth-year option season of his rookie contract with a guaranteed salary of $19.7 million. That number is so high because, well, Justin Jefferson has been more productive than any wide receiver in NFL history through this stage of his career and has just been awesome in general.

While there has been significant hand wringing over why the Vikings and Jefferson haven’t gotten a deal done yet, one prominent football writer has suggested that maybe the Vikings shouldn’t worry about that at all.

Behind the great E$PN paywall, Aaron Schatz, formerly of Football Outsiders, has one “bold move” for each team in the league, and his suggestion for the Vikings certainly falls under that heading: Trade Justin Jefferson and reset.

This would truly be a bold move because Jefferson is a great receiver. This suggestion is not to belittle Jefferson’s abilities. He has ranked in the top 12 for wide receiver DVOA in all four of his NFL seasons, and he was in the top three for total value in his three healthy seasons (i.e. not 2023).

However, Jefferson’s salary just ballooned to $19.7 million because of his fifth-year option in 2024, and it’s going to be higher than that if the Vikings can sign him to a long-term extension. He is also making noise that he wants to know the team’s future quarterback plans before he signs that extension. He probably wants Kirk Cousins back. Cousins had one of his best half-seasons in 2023, but giving him another long-term deal at age 35 might not be the best decision for Minnesota’s future.

So why not just go for a total reset? Trade Jefferson for a couple of high draft picks. Use one of them to draft his replacement, the same way the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs and used the pick they got in return to draft Jefferson. Perhaps that pick can be used on a young quarterback, or to trade up for a better young quarterback.

Meanwhile, shaving Cousins and Jefferson off the team’s salary ledger will allow the Vikings to sign a number of free agents to improve other positions, building a team that’s ready to compete once they figure out their quarterback situation (presumably with a youngster in either 2024 or 2025).

While I can understand what Schatz is saying here, I’m not sure if we can make a parallel to the Diggs trade as an example of why trading Jefferson is a good idea for a couple of reasons.

First of all, the Vikings got incredibly lucky when they had Justin Jefferson fall into their laps after the Diggs trade. We all remember the video that came out after that draft of all the Vikings’ bras, including Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman, on the Zoom call and learning that the Philadelphia Eagles had taken Jalen Reagor instead of Jefferson with the pick right before Minnesota’s. If you don’t, here’s a refresher.

If that pick goes the other way, a lot of people probably would have been fired a lot earlier than they were and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The rebuild would already be underway and, honestly, we’d know the results of it by now. You can’t expect the Vikings to get this lucky again. Sure, they could, but it’s not a foregone conclusion or anything.

The other issue is that there is very little chance that you’re going to get the value for Justin Jefferson that you should get. The Vikings got a first-round pick in the Diggs trade, and Diggs has never been on the level that Jefferson is on right now. Honestly, you could make a solid argument that Diggs wasn’t the best receiver in Minnesota when the Vikings traded him to the Buffalo Bills during the 2020 offseason.

If the Vikings’ WR2 is worth a first-round pick, what do you ask for in return for a guy that has already won one Offensive Player of the Year Award, was at least on the periphery of the MVP conversation in 2022 when he was chasing 2,000 yards, and has racked up more receiving yards than any player in his first four seasons in NFL history despite missing half of this past season with an injury?

Whatever you ask for, you’re probably not going to get it. The asking price for a player of Jefferson’s caliber should be astronomical and I’m not sure how many, if any, NFL teams would be willing to meet it.

Moreover, trading a player like Jefferson, who is the face of the franchise and one of the faces of the league at this point, would succeed in alienating a significant portion of the fan base, and I can’t imagine that the Wilf family would be pleased with something like that.

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been on record as saying that he doesn’t want to be the general manager of the Minnesota Vikings if Justin Jefferson isn’t on the team. And while I can understand the appeal behind potentially trading him away, I think that the “cons” of any potential deal along those lines would far outweigh the “pros,” particularly if you are going to be having a changing of the guard at quarterback. Why wouldn’t you want a youngster to have Justin Jefferson to throw to?

What about you folks? Do you think there’s any potential merit to trading away the NFL’s best non-quarterback?